An enhanced fuzzy linguistic term generation and representation for time series forecasting
Sahin, Atakan and Kumbasar, Tufan and Yesil, Engin and Dodurka, M. Furkan and Karasakal, Onur and Siradag, Sarven; (2015) An enhanced fuzzy linguistic term generation and representation for time series forecasting. In: 2015 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE 2015). IEEE, TUR. ISBN 9781467374286 (https://doi.org/10.1109/FUZZ-IEEE.2015.7337904)
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Abstract
This paper introduces an enhancement to linguistic forecast representation using Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs) called Enhanced Linguistic Generation and Representation Approach (ElinGRA). Since there is always an error margin in the predictions, there is a need to define error bounds in the forecast. The interval of the proposed presentation is generated from a Fuzzy logic based Lower and Upper Bound Estimator (FLUBE) by getting the models of forecast errors. Thus, instead of a classical statistical approaches, the level of uncertainty associated with the point forecasts will be defined within the FLUBE bounds and these bound can be used for defining fuzzy linguistic terms for the forecasts. Here, ElinGRA is proposed to generate triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs) for the predictions. In addition to opportunity to handle the forecast as linguistic terms which will increase the interpretability, ElinGRA improved forecast accuracy of constructed TFNs by adding an extra correction term. The results of the experiments, which are conducted on two data sets, show the benefit of using ElinGRA to represent the uncertainty and the quality of the forecast.
ORCID iDs
Sahin, Atakan ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1042-7679, Kumbasar, Tufan, Yesil, Engin, Dodurka, M. Furkan, Karasakal, Onur and Siradag, Sarven;-
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Item type: Book Section ID code: 60316 Dates: DateEvent30 November 2015Published1 April 2015Accepted15 February 2015SubmittedSubjects: Technology > Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Department: Faculty of Science > Pure and Applied Chemistry Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 27 Mar 2017 15:39 Last modified: 29 Aug 2024 00:31 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/60316