Conceptualising risk

Jasionowski, Andrzej and Vassalos, Dracos; Neves, Marcelo Almeida Santos and Belenky, Vadim L. and de Kat, Jean Otto and Spyrou, Kostas and Umeda, Naoya, eds. (2011) Conceptualising risk. In: Contemporary Ideas on Ship Stability and Capsizing in Waves. Fluid Mechanics and Its Applications . Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 47-64. ISBN 9789400714816 (

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Ever present jargon and colloquial notion of risk, coupled with obscuring of the simplicity inherent in the concepts of risk by the sophistication of computer software applications of techniques such as event trees, fault trees, Bayesian networks, or others, seem to be major factors inhibiting comprehension and systematic proliferation of the process of safety provision on the bases of risk in routine ship design practice. This paper attempts to stimulate consideration of risk at the fundamental level of mathematical axioms, by proposing a prototype of a comprehensive yet plain model of risk posed by the activity of ship operation. A process of conceptualising of substantive elements of the proposed risk model pertinent to the hazards of collision and flooding is presented. Results of tentative sensitivity studies are presented and discussed.