Coup risk, coup-proofing strategy and leader survival
Sudduth, Jun Koga (2017) Coup risk, coup-proofing strategy and leader survival. Journal of Peace Research, 54 (1). pp. 3-15. ISSN 0022-3433
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Abstract
Under what conditions do political leaders take strategies that allow them to reduce militaries' capabilities to successfully organize a coup? There is a broad consensus among previous studies that political leaders who face a high risk of coup will employ "coup-proofing" strategies. A closer look at their theory and empirical analyses, however, suggests that the presumed relationship between coup risk and coup-proofing should be reexamined. Drawing on insights from formal studies on authoritarian power-sharing, this article proposes that political leaders are less likely to undertake coup-proofing efforts as the coup risk they face increases because militaries can deter leaders from weakening them by threatening a coup. The statistical models in this article estimate a latent coup risk by properly aggregating multiple indicators that capture militaries' willingness and ability to organize a coup. The empirical results strongly support the proposition: Coup-proofing efforts taken by leaders decrease in coup risk.
Author(s): | Sudduth, Jun Koga ![]() | Item type: | Article |
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ID code: | 57847 |
Keywords: | coups, coup-proofing, civil-military relations, political leaders, coup risk, military, Political theory, Political Science and International Relations, Safety Research, Sociology and Political Science |
Subjects: | Political Science > Political theory |
Department: | Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (HaSS) > School of Government and Public Policy > Politics |
Depositing user: | Pure Administrator |
Date deposited: | 19 Sep 2016 11:50 |
Last modified: | 13 Dec 2019 04:25 |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/57847 |
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