Coup risk, coup-proofing strategy and leader survival

Sudduth, Jun Koga (2017) Coup risk, coup-proofing strategy and leader survival. Journal of Peace Research, 54 (1). pp. 3-15. ISSN 0022-3433

[thumbnail of Sudduth-JPR2016-Coup-risk-coup-proofing-strategy-and-leader-survival]
Preview
 Text (Sudduth-JPR2016-Coup-risk-coup-proofing-strategy-and-leader-survival)
Sudduth_JPR2016_Coup_risk_coup_proofing_strategy_and_leader_survival.pdf
Accepted Author Manuscript
Download (219kB)| Preview

    Abstract

    Under what conditions do political leaders take strategies that allow them to reduce militaries' capabilities to successfully organize a coup? There is a broad consensus among previous studies that political leaders who face a high risk of coup will employ "coup-proofing" strategies. A closer look at their theory and empirical analyses, however, suggests that the presumed relationship between coup risk and coup-proofing should be reexamined. Drawing on insights from formal studies on authoritarian power-sharing, this article proposes that political leaders are less likely to undertake coup-proofing efforts as the coup risk they face increases because militaries can deter leaders from weakening them by threatening a coup. The statistical models in this article estimate a latent coup risk by properly aggregating multiple indicators that capture militaries' willingness and ability to organize a coup. The empirical results strongly support the proposition: Coup-proofing efforts taken by leaders decrease in coup risk.

    ORCID iDs

    Sudduth, Jun Koga ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3319-3382;
    CORE (COnnecting REpositories)