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Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind

McMillan, D. and Dinwoodie, I. (2014) Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind. In: Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis. CRC Press, pp. 2119-2125. ISBN 978-1-315-81559-6

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Abstract

Offshore wind deployment has greatly increased in the last decade. The number and size of installations have historically determined the requirement for jack up vessels, as installation was the only driver for heavy lift vessel requirement. The next phase of offshore wind development will change this situation, as jack up requirement for operations and maintenance will certainly increase as assets age, and in parallel larger sites continue to be installed and commissioned. The approach taken in this paper is to develop a long-term vessel demand model. This is achieved by a two stage process: firstly an installation jack up demand model is developed using UK offshore wind data for projects installed in the period 2003-2016. This model is utilized in tandem with an operations and maintenance jack up requirement model which is based on published reliability figures and failure duration data. The combined model captures the requirement for jack up vessels in the period 2012-2030. The paper concludes that demand for jack up vessels in UK waters will ramp up significantly in this decade, with an initial peak in 2014. A secondary peak around 2028 is highly dependent on assumptions regarding the trajectory of the turbine failure rate over time.