Switching Markov Gaussian models for dynamic power system inertia estimation

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Cao, Xue and Stephen, Bruce and Abdulhadi, Ibrahim Faiek and Booth, Campbell and Burt, Graeme (2015) Switching Markov Gaussian models for dynamic power system inertia estimation. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems. ISSN 0885-8950 (In Press) (https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2501458)

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Abstract

Future power systems could benefit considerably from having a continuous real-time estimate of system inertia. If realized, this could provide reference inputs to proactive control and protection systems which could enhance not only system stability but also operational economics through, for example, more informed ancillary reserve planning using knowledge of prevailing system conditions and stability margins. Performing these predictions in real time is a significant challenge owing to the complex stochastic and temporal relationships between available measurements. This paper proposes a statistical model capable of estimating system inertia in real time through observed steady-state and relatively small frequency variations; it is trained to learn the features that inter-relate steady-state averaged frequency variations and system inertia, using historical system data demonstrated over two consecutive years. The proposed algorithm is formulated as Gaussian Mixture Model with temporal dependence encoded as a Markov chains. Applied within a UK power system scenario, it produces an optimized mean squared error within 0.1s2 for 95% of the daily estimation if being calibrated on a half-hourly basis and maintains robustness through measurement interruptions of up to a period of three hours.

ORCID iDs

Cao, Xue ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5863-3703, Stephen, Bruce ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7502-8129, Abdulhadi, Ibrahim Faiek ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3657-8379, Booth, Campbell ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3869-4477 and Burt, Graeme ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0315-5919;
  • Item type:Article
    ID code:54785
    Dates:
    Date
    Event
    5 November 2015
    Published
    5 November 2015
    Accepted
    Notes:(c) 2015 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other users, including reprinting/ republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted components of this work in other works.
    Subjects:Technology > Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
    Department:Faculty of Engineering > Electronic and Electrical Engineering
    Depositing user: Pure Administrator
    Date deposited:11 Dec 2015 01:35
    Last modified:16 Dec 2024 16:10
    Related URLs:
    URI:https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/54785
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