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Ageing, health status, and economic activity in Scotland : a twenty year view

Millar, Robyn and Burns, Harry and Morton, Alec (2015) Ageing, health status, and economic activity in Scotland : a twenty year view. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 39 (1). pp. 72-84. ISSN 2046-5378

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Abstract

Countries worldwide face the economic and public expenditure challenges of an ageing population. However, ageing per se is but one part of the challenge. The forecast for Scotland’s population health and labour market status will further impact on the scale of required public spending – in health and social protection - as well as on the base of those who are economically active and capable of bearing the scale of such expenditure (by way of taxation). This analysis points to the value on the public expenditure side of early health, education and social protection interventions to reduce future forecast expenditure in health and social protection. On the revenue raising side, it points to the need to expand Scotland’s future effective working age population by way of reducing those considered NEET, expanding female and post age 65/67 labour market participation, and of attracting new working age migrants to Scotland.