Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2015]
Allan, Grant (2015) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2015]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 39 (1). pp. 27-37. ISSN 2046-5378
Preview |
Text.
Filename: FEC_39_1_2015_AllanG.pdf
Final Published Version Download (593kB)| Preview |
Abstract
The latest figures on economic growth in Scotland confirm that the Scottish economy grew by 2.7% during 2014: the fastest annual rate of growth since 2006. Recent evidence supports the view that much of the growth during 2014 was however from increases in household consumption, although there were signs of much welcomed growth in investment (largely from public infrastructure projects). Surveys point to a slowing of growth in the first half of 2015, while the extent to which growth will be sustained through 2016 and 2017 is critically dependent on the return of stronger real wage growth and an easing of household debt to income ratios, and the measures announced in the UK Government budget in July (and the outcomes of progress of further powers to the Scottish parliament). On the back of recent evidence, we have slightly revised down our forecasts for growth in 2015 and 2016 by 0.1 percentage points since March. Critically, Scottish export performance remains weak, and the possibility of fundamental change in the Eurozone driven by the outcome of Greek debt discussions - which are coming to a head at the time of writing - will be critical for the external economic environment facing Scotland in the short and medium term.
ORCID iDs
Allan, Grant ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1404-2768;-
-
Item type: Article ID code: 53539 Dates: DateEvent26 June 2015PublishedSubjects: Social Sciences > Economic Theory Department: Strathclyde Business School > Economics
Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander InstituteDepositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 30 Jun 2015 09:02 Last modified: 14 Nov 2024 01:08 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/53539