The British economy [June 1989]

Ashcroft, Brian and Love, Jim and Brooks, Richard and Dourmashkin, Neil and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and Yin, Ya Ping and Lockyer, Cliff and Malloy, Eleanor and McRory, Eric and Monaghan, Claire and McGregor, Peter and McNicolI, Iain and Perman, Roger and Stevens, Jim (1989) The British economy [June 1989]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 14 (4). pp. 5-12. ISSN 2046-5378

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Despite the concern shown by the financial markets following the publication of the DTI's provisional retail sales figures for May, the balance of the evidence is that the economy is slowing down. What cannot be guaranteed is that the tightening of domestic demand will produce an outturn which has been described as a "soft landing". High earnings growth and the recent marked fall in sterling are likely to push the RPI above earlier expectations and, as base rates edge higher, the prospect of the economy avoiding a recessionary outcome almost certainly diminishes.