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Outlook and appraisal [March 1999]

Ashcroft, Brian (1999) Outlook and appraisal [March 1999]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 24 (2). i-v. ISSN 0306-7866

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The effect of the Chancellor's Budget measures is to produce a broadly neutral fiscal stance in the UK over the next three years. A slight stimulus to aggregate demand this year is counterbalanced by a tightening of demand in the following two years. The implications for the growth of demand in the Scottish economy are much more difficult to assess. The effect of the tax changes in Scotland should broadly parallel their impact in the UK, although given the strong redistributive elements in the Budget it might be expected that the stimulus to demand would be somewhat greater here.