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The Scottish economy [May 1984]

Kirwan, Frank and Buchanan, Bob and Crawford, Robert and Draper, Paul and Harrigan, Frank and Heeley, John and Jenkins, Iain and Love, James and McNicoll, Iain and McGilvray, Jim and McVey, Michael and Midwinter, Arthur and O'Donnell, Noreen and Simpson, David and Stevens, Jim and Walker, Jim (1984) The Scottish economy [May 1984]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 9 (4). pp. 14-55. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

In summary, there is evidence to suggest that the recovery of output in the Scottish economy is becoming more broadly based. Exports are now providing a much needed stimulus to demand and capital goods industries are beginning to benefit from the upturn in investment in plant and machinery. The short-term outlook for capital goods industries is made all the better by the prospect of firms bringing forward their investment plans to take advantage of the phasing out of capital allowances. While the abolition of capital allowances should in the medium term also provide a boost to employment, over the longer term an effective increase in the cost of capital is a poor augury for a Scottish economy relatively specialised in the production of investment goods. Detailed analyses of sectoral trends within Scottish industry is provided, as well as labour market trends and regional economic and unemployment conditions.