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The British economy [February 1984]

Kirwan, Frank and Basu, Dipak and Buchanan, Bob and Crawford, Robert and Draper, Paul and Harrigan, Frank and Heeley, John and Jenkins, Iain and Love, James and McNicoll, Iain and McVey, Michael and Midwinter, Arthur and Moar, Lyle and O'Donnell, Noreen and Simpson, David and Stevens, Jim and Walker, Jim (1984) The British economy [February 1984]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 9 (3). pp. 6-14. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

It seems unlikely that the pace of growth in the British economy will either accelerate or decelerate significantly during the current year. It also seems unlikely that the Budget will embody any substantive and unexpected changes in government strategy. As this analysis will show, monetary policy is broadly on target, while public expenditure appears to be coming back into line after some months of unplanned growth. The Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (PSBR) for 1983/4, though considerably in excess of the target initially announced in the 1983 Budget, seems unlikely to be quite as high as that envisaged in the November Statement. The PSBR target for 1984 implied in the Medium Term Financial Strategy seems attainable without the imposition of additional taxation.