Outlook and appraisal [March 2015]

Ashcroft, Brian (2015) Outlook and appraisal [March 2015]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 38 (3). pp. 3-29. ISSN 2046-5378

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The Scottish and UK economies are now recovering at a reasonable rate from the greatest economic shock since the 1930s. This recovery has taken longer than from the 1930s Depression or any of the three other recessions experienced since the 1970s. The UK Coalition Government’s austerity programme slowed the recovery considerably until the pace of fiscal consolidation was paused in 2012 and then slowed thereafter. Recovery picked up in 2013 as the pace of austerity slowed after the UK posted the slowest recovery from the global recession of any advanced country, with the exception of Italy and Greece. The recovery has taken hold as consumers raised their spending and investment picked up.