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The Scottish economy [December 1992]

McFarland, Mark and Ashcroft, Brian and Brooks, Richard and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and James, Tony and Lockyer, Cliff and Love, Jim and Malloy, Eleanor and McGregor, Peter and McRory, Eric and O'Brien, Vanessa and Stevens, Jim and Swales, Kim and Yin, Ya Ping, Fraser of Allander Institute (1992) The Scottish economy [December 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 18 (2). pp. 9-48. ISSN 0306-7866

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In the previous Commentary, we correctly forecasted a further fall in the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries (Division 1 to 4 of the 1980 SIC) for the second quarter this year. But the extent of the fall was not fully picked up by the forecasting equation. The latest news release (10 November) by the Scottish Office shows a 2.9% fall in output in the second quarter. In the present forecast, we carried out a thorough test for unit roots and co-integration in the expanded time series used in our forecasting equation.