The Scottish economy to 1990

McNicoll, I H (1982) The Scottish economy to 1990. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 8 (2). pp. 42-45. ISSN 0306-7866

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Over the past three years the Fraser of Allander Institute, partly supported by an SSRC grant, has been developing a medium-term multi-sectoral forecasting model of the Scottish economy. A fairly aggregated version of the model was made operational in 1981 and its formulation and performance were discussed in an earlier monograph (Bell et al (1982) ). During the past year the model, whilst retaining essentially the same structure, has been further developed and extended; in particular the number of individually forecast iindustrial sectors has been increased from 16 to 42. The first forecasts with the extended model were made in autumn this year and presented to an invited audience at Strathclyde Business School in September. This note summarises and discusses the results of these forecasts.