The Scottish economy [November 1982]

Simpson, David and Bell, David and Hamilton, Douglas and McGilvray, James and McNicoll, Iain and Moar, Lyle and O'Donnell, Noreen and Tait, Elizabeth and Walker, James and Wingfield, Alison (1982) The Scottish economy [November 1982]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 8 (2). pp. 6-28. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

The short-term outlook for the Scottish economy remains fairly pessimistic. Though recent falls in interest rates may give a small filip to consumer demand around Christmas, there are no immediate prospects for an upsurge in industrial output. Import propensities are now so high as to negate most of the beneficial effects of an increase in demand. The forecasts detailed below reflect this increasingly pessimistic view of short-term developments in the Scottish economy. Unemployment, which averaged 352,000 in the third quarter of 1982 could rise to 369,000 thousand by the end of 1983 if present trends continue. With no significant stimulus to demand in the offing, any substantive improvement in labour market conditions is likely to be postponed, at least until 1984.

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