Unemployment forecasts
Bell, David N.F. and Emmett, Gary and Fraser, Neil and Hamilton, Douglas and Jowett, Anne and McGilvray, James W. and Kirwan, Frank X. and Moar, Lyle and Orton, Ian and Simpson, David R. F. and Wingfield, A. A. (1980) Unemployment forecasts. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 5 (4). pp. 36-38. ISSN 0306-7866
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Abstract
One of the main features of this commentary since its inception in July 1975 has been its regular unemployment forecasts. Each issue has incorporated a prediction of Scottish unemployment six months ahead. Since these forecasts have been produced for some time, it is now reasonable to assess their performance. Specifically, in this note, two questions will be addressed: (1) firstly, how accurate were the forecasts in terms of conformity to the actual outturn? (2) secondly, is there any evidence of systematic bias in the forecasts? : that is, is there a tendency for the predictions to take too optimistic or too pessimistic a view of the future course of unemployment?
Creators(s): | Bell, David N.F., Emmett, Gary, Fraser, Neil, Hamilton, Douglas, Jowett, Anne, McGilvray, James W., Kirwan, Frank X., Moar, Lyle, Orton, Ian, Simpson, David R. F. and Wingfield, A. A.; Bell, David N.F. | Item type: | Article |
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ID code: | 50604 |
Keywords: | unemployment forecasts, Scottish economy, Scotland, employment patterns, labour market conditions, Economic Theory, Industries. Land use. Labor, Economics and Econometrics |
Subjects: | Social Sciences > Economic Theory Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor |
Department: | Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander Institute |
Depositing user: | Pure Administrator |
Date deposited: | 27 Nov 2014 16:35 |
Last modified: | 02 Mar 2021 01:17 |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/50604 |
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