Review of the quarter's economic trends [October 1979]

Bell, David N.F. and Emmett, Gary and Fraser, Neil and Jowett, Anne and Kirwan, Frank X. and McGilvray, James W. and McNicoll, Iain H. and Moar, Lyle and Orton, Ian and Simpson, David R. F. and Wingfield, A. A. (1979) Review of the quarter's economic trends [October 1979]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 5 (2). pp. 1-5. ISSN 0306-7866

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The second quarter of this year saw a rapid recovery of activity from its depressed first quarter level. The preliminary output based estimates suggest that GDP (including oil) rose some 3% between the two quarters. Nonetheless, GDP for the first half of 1979 was only ½% higher than in the latter half of 1978, most of this increase being due to increased North Sea production and a higher level of activity in the motor and distributive trades. Little further growth is likely over the remainder of this year and GDP may actually decline in 1980. This section reviews recent developments in the major macro-economic aggregates and concludes with a cautious appraisal of the present outlook.