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Population, employment and labour force projections

Bell, David N.F. and Kirwan, Frank X. (1979) Population, employment and labour force projections. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 5 (1). pp. 35-43. ISSN 0306-7866

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In a previous issue of this Commentary (July 1977, Vol.3. No.1) some projections of Scottish population and labour force were made. Required rates of new job creation were evaluated, given a target of 5% unemployment by 1981. This present article updates the earlier study, extending it in two main directions. Firstly, the migration forecasts, rather than spanning a range of possible outcomes, are derived directly from an econometric forecast of the Scottish economy over the next few years. Secondly, the projection period over which the forecasts are made is extended considerably; to 1993 as far as population and labour supply are concerned. The paper is divided into two sections, the first dealing with the methodology underlying the projections, while the second discusses results and implications.