Nowcasting the Scottish economy

Allan, Grant and Koop, Gary and McIntyre, Stuart and Smith, Paul (2014) Nowcasting the Scottish economy. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 38 (2). pp. 93-96. ISSN 2046-5378

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Given the significant lag between the end of a quarter and the release of Scottish GVA estimates, there are considerable advantages to be gained from improvements in short term forecasting or nowcasting. In addition, with the planned devolution of further economic powers to the Scottish Parliament, a better understanding of the nature and evolution of the Scottish economy is likely to be particularly valuable. In the coming months we will begin to release estimates of Scottish GVA using our nowcasting model, and we hope that this work will be of interest and use to readers of the Fraser Economic Commentary.