Econometric forecasts for Scotland

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Bell, David N. F. and Danson, Michael W. and Glassford, M. E. and Kirwan, Frank X. and McGilvray, James W. and Morton, A. J. and Wingfield, Alison A., Fraser of Allander Institute (1978) Econometric forecasts for Scotland. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 3 (4). pp. 34-36. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

In the first issue (July 1975) of the Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, the special article, by Professor J McGilvray, reviewed the problems associated with constructing regional econometric models to forecast key economic variables. Since that time, a number of forecasts for the Scottish economy have been made in the main text or in special articles of the Quarterly Commentary. Many of these have been underpinned by forecasting relationships which have been estimated for particular sectors of the economy. Up to now we have been unable to produce a set of relationships which could genuinely be described as a 'model' of the Scottish economy. The reason for this is simple, but illustrative of the type of problem discussed by Professor McGilvray. To understand it one must be acquainted with the fundamental differences which exist between national and regional economic models.

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