The Scottish economy [July 1975]

Bell, David N. F. and McGilvray, James W. and Oswald, Andrew J. and Simpson, David R. F., Fraser of Allander Institute (1975) The Scottish economy [July 1975]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 1 (1). pp. 14-28. ISSN 0306-7866

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Scottish GDP in real terms increased in 1974, and our central estimate for this increase is £4106m at constant prices; this represents an increase of 0.8% over 1973. Modest though this is, in a year in which UK GDP as a whole actually declined it can be regarded with some satisfaction. Indeed our qualitative judgement is that the statistical forecast is, if anything on the conservative side, though as yet our forecasting methods are insufficiently developed to include these additional indicators of activity levels. Trends in GDP during the first quarter of 1975 are more difficult to predict.