The Scottish economy [March 1992]

Love, Jim and Ashcroft, Brian and Brooks, Richard and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and Leif, Kevin and Lockyer, Cliff and Malloy, Eleanor and McFarland, Mark and McGregor, Peter and McNicoll, Iain and McRory, Eric and Perman, Roger and Stevens, Jim and Swales, Kim and Yin, Ya Ping, Fraser of Allander Institute (1992) The Scottish economy [March 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 17 (3). pp. 10-50. ISSN 0306-7866

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In the last issue of the Commentary, we forecast that an up-tum in the business cycle (in terms of the seasonally adjusted Scottish output index for production industries, Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) would occur in the third quarter last year, indicating technically an end to the current recession. This is confirmed by the latest official data, published by the Scottish Office on 11, February 1992. The present forecasting period extends to the second quarter of 1993. In making the Scottish forecasts, the output index series for the UK production industries is used as the exogenous data input. We calculate the UK index for the present forecasting period on the basis of the National Institute's projections. The output equation on which the forecasts are based is re-estimated using the revised and extended official data on the UK and Scottish output series.