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The British economy [March 1992]

Love, Jim and Ashcroft, Brian and Brooks, Richard and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and Leif, Kevin and Lockyer, Cliff and Malloy, Eleanor and McFarland, Mark and McGregor, Peter and McNicoll, Iain and McRory, Eric and Perman, Roger and Stevens, Jim and Swales, Kim and Yin, Ya Ping, Fraser of Allander Institute (1992) The British economy [March 1992]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 17 (3). pp. 6-9. ISSN 0306-7866

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The recession in non-oil GDP has continued for six quarters with the real value of output falling by just under 4% since the second quarter of 1990. The present recession is therefore the longest since the Second World War, although the fall is still not as rapid, or as deep, as in the 1979-81 recession where the decline in non-oil GDP from peak to trough occurred over five quarters and amounted to 6.2%. Considerable uncertainty exists over the course of demand over the next few months, with consumption unlikely to exhibit strong growth. The likely outturn for GDP growth during 1992 is for an increase of no more than 1%. Macroeconomic trends, earnings and productivity, and unemployment levels are also analysed.