The Scottish economy [December 1991]

Love, Jim and Ashcroft, Brian and Dourmashkin, Neil and Brooks, Richard and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and Malloy, Eleanor and McGregor, Peter and McNicoll, Iain and McFarland, Mark and McRory, Eric and Perman, Roger and Swales, Kim and Stevens, Jim and Yin, Ya Ping, Fraser of Allander Institute (1991) The Scottish economy [December 1991]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 17 (2). pp. 10-55. ISSN 0306-7866

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Abstract

This detailed article provides an analysis of key Scottish economic trends based on recent data. The forecast of quarterly movements in the seasonally-adjusted Scottish output index for production industries (Divisions 1-4 of the 1980 SIC) is based on the short-term model of the Scottish economy, details of which are contained in the Briefing Paper in the September issue of the Commentary. Note that here the classification of production industries excludes construction but includes SIC Class 13 (oil and gas). As a reminder, the current Scottish output is modelled as driven by the current and past UK outputs, and also by the past Scottish output. In making the Scottish forecasts, the exogenous data on the UK output index for the forecast period are derived from the National Institute's projections. Since the quarterly forecasts for the UK output beyond the fourth quarter of 1992 are not yet available, the present forecasting period remains the same as that in the last issue. However, the output equation is reestimated using the revised official data on the UK and Scottish output series. Therefore, the difference between the present forecasts and that in the last issue is totally due to data revision.

ORCID iDs

Dunlop, Stewart ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5729-9299

Malloy, Eleanor ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9182-1610

McGregor, Peter ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1221-7963

Perman, Roger ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6862-7462

Stevens, Jim ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6035-1580

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• Item metadata

  Item type:	Article
  ID code:	49832
  Dates:	Date Event December 1991 Published
  Subjects:	Social Sciences > Economic Theory Social Sciences > Communities. Classes. Races > Regional economics. Space in economics Social Sciences > Public Finance
  Department:	Strathclyde Business School > Economics Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander Institute Strathclyde Business School > Accounting and Finance
  Depositing user:	Pure Administrator
  Date deposited:	15 Oct 2014 13:46
  Last modified:	20 Nov 2024 01:10
  Related URLs:	Journal or Publication Organisation
  URI:	https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/49832