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Outlook and appraisal [December 1991]

Love, Jim and Ashcroft, Brian and Dourmashkin, Neil and Brooks, Richard and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and Malloy, Eleanor and McGregor, Peter and McNicoll, Iain and McFarland, Mark and McRory, Eric and Perman, Roger and Swales, Kim and Stevens, Jim and Yin, Ya Ping, Fraser of Allander Institute (1991) Outlook and appraisal [December 1991]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 17 (2). pp. 1-2. ISSN 0306-7866

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    In common with its UK counterpart, the Scottish economy appears to have reached a turning point during the third quarter of this year. However, the indications are that recovery, particularly in manufacturing, will be very sluggish, with little evidence of a clear recovery until well into 1992. In the second quarter of 1991 the index of production and construction for Scotland fell by 0.3%, resulting in an annual decline of 4.0% compared with 3.7% for the UK. In manufacturing, the decline in the Scottish index during the quarter was 0.4% compared with 0.7% for the UK, the third successive quarter in which the fall in Scottish manufacturing output has been less than that of the UK. Nevertheless, Scottish manufacturing output fell by 7.5% in the year to June while that of the UK declined by only 3.9%; this is a result of the sharp peak and slump which apparently occurred in Scotland between the first and second halves of 1990.