Short term fluctuations in Scottish output, employment and unemployment
Yin, Ya Ping (1991) Short term fluctuations in Scottish output, employment and unemployment. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 17 (1). pp. 52-57. ISSN 0306-7866
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Abstract
This is an interim working paper on the development of a an econometric model of the short-term fluctuations in output, employment and unemployment in the Scottish economy. As is argued by many previous regional modellers and analysts, it is of both theoretical and practical importance to have an in-depth understanding of the regional economic problems and adjustment mechanisms. This is particularly needed at a time when the European nations are moving towards an economic and monetary union, as the importance of 'regional' issues will increase with 'regional' adjustment mechanisms replacing nominal exchange rate mechanism. A major advantage of this model is that it is the first quarterly model of the Scottish economy. A quarterly version of the model adds more power and flexibility than an annual model. With a quarterly model we can not only explore richer lag structures and dynamic processes, but also carry out more routine statistical tests against a variety of null hypotheses. A quarterly model can also provide timely forecasts. Another difference is that in the present model the employment equation is derived from a maximization problem rather than an ad hoc specification. In the following section we give a detailed account of the structure and specification of the model.
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Item type: Article ID code: 49763 Dates: DateEvent1991PublishedSubjects: Social Sciences > Economic Theory Department: Strathclyde Business School > Economics
Strathclyde Business School > Fraser of Allander InstituteDepositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 13 Oct 2014 13:26 Last modified: 21 Oct 2024 00:19 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/49763