Outlook and appraisal [September 1991]

, ed. (1991) Outlook and appraisal [September 1991]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 17 (1). pp. 1-2. ISSN 0306-7866

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Both Scotland and the UK continue to bump along the bottom of the recession. Some recent UK data suggest the glimmerings of an upturn, but recovery is likely to be slow and lengthy. Previous quarterly data up to the first quarter of 1991 had suggested that the rate of decline in UK GDP was steadily slowing. However, preliminary GDP figures for the second quarter indicate a fall of 0.9% compared with the first quarter, rather more than might have been expected if there was any clear sign of the recession bottoming out by the middle of the year. This suggests that the economy is continuing in the trough of the recession, and if these preliminary data are not substantially revised it is unlikely that there will be much of an upturn before 1992.