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The British economy [June 1991]

Love, Jim and Ashcroft, Brian and Brooks, Richard and Dourmashkin, Neil and Draper, Paul and Dunlop, Stewart and Lockyer, Cliff and Malloy, Eleanor and Monaghan, Claire and McGregor, Peter and McNicoll, Iain and McRory, Eric and Perman, Roger and Swales, Kim (1991) The British economy [June 1991]. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 16 (4). pp. 6-9. ISSN 0306-7866

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This brief article provides an analysis of key British economic trends based on recent data. GDP has now fallen for three successive quarters but at a diminishing rate. Leading indicators suggest the likelihood of a recovery in the third quarter of 1991. However, the present weakness of manufacturing and services - partially masked by buoyancy in the energy sector - weak consumer demand constrained by a stagnant housing market, weak investment and weak export performance, suggest that the upturn, if it occurs at that time, is unlikely to be vigorous and could be one of several "false dawns".