How to predict the 2014 World Cup winner (in one simple equation) : determinants of national football team results 2011-2013 - a new methodology

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Scelles, N. and Andreff, W. (2014) How to predict the 2014 World Cup winner (in one simple equation) : determinants of national football team results 2011-2013 - a new methodology. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 38 (1). pp. 100-103. ISSN 2046-5378

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Abstract

This short note sets out an approach to predicting national football team results using a new, hybrid economics-based methodology. It draws on previous work in the field and was tested on almost 3,000 international football matches over the period 2011- 2013. The same methodology can be used in a predicative way and could be used, for example, to predict the result of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. A forthcoming article to be published by the Fraser Economic Commentary will seek to predict Scotland’s likely progress in the forthcoming Euro 2016 competition.

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