Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2008]

Low, Kenneth (2008) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2008]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 32 (2). pp. 18-30. ISSN 2046-5378

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For four years through to mid 2007 the ‘global economy boomed’ (International Monetary Fund, October 2008), with world growth averaging some 5% per annum, the strongest sustained rate for some three decades. Growth in developing and emerging economies was pronounced with China, India and Brazil reporting amongst the strongest annual growth rates. At the same time inflation remained modest and an image of macroeconomic stability prevailed in both political and financial circles. In the UK policies of targeting inflation levels have been evident since 1997 and a policy of low and stable inflation was evident in the US where Alan Greenspan led the US Federal Reserve.