Outlook and appraisal [November 2008]

Ashcroft, Brian (2008) Outlook and appraisal [November 2008]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 32 (2). pp. 4-17. ISSN 2046-5378

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Abstract

There is a high probability that the Scottish economy will go into recession in 2009. Recession is the likely outcome of the global financial crisis, which was triggered by the collapse of the house price bubble, initially in the United States, massive foreclosures in the US sub-prime mortgage market, and significant bank and hedge fund losses across the globe as the value of innovative investments based on sub-prime mortgages collapsed.

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