Outlook and appraisal [February 2012]

Ashcroft, Brian (2012) Outlook and appraisal [February 2012]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 35 (3). pp. 4-21. ISSN 2046-5378

[thumbnail of FEC_35_3_2012_AshcroftB]
Preview
 PDF. Filename: FEC_35_3_2012_AshcroftB.pdf
Final Published Version
Download (1MB)| Preview

Abstract

The basic picture continues to be one of weak recovery with a further weakening apparent towards the end of 2011, as the UK economy contracted by 0.2%. Scottish GDP is still -3.3%% below the pre-recession peak nearly four years ago, while the figure for UK GVA is -3.6%. However, while the depth of the recession was greater in the UK, at -7.2%, than in Scotland, -5.9%, the recovery of UK GDP has been slightly faster than in Scotland. The National Institute in London has noted that the time taken in returning to the pre-recession peak is now greater than in the Great Depression in the 1930s. Our new forecast suggests that overall Scottish GDP will not return to its pre-recession peak - the level of GDP the economy was at just before it went into recession - until the third quarter of 2014, just in time for the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow (23rd July to 3rd August 2014). That is, six years after the recession began.

CORE (COnnecting REpositories)