Outlook and appraisal [November 2012]

Ashcroft, Brian (2012) Outlook and appraisal [November 2012]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 36 (2). pp. 3-19. ISSN 2046-5378

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The growth of the Scottish economy continues to be weak, the labour market especially. GDP in constant prices fell by 0.4% in Scotland during the second quarter, the same loss of output as in the UK. Both the Scottish and UK economies have contracted for the three quarters up to the second quarter. But data for the third quarter show the UK economy to have expanded by 1%. We consider this to be an 'Olympics bounce' which is unlikely to affect Scotland to the same extent. Positive Scottish retail sales figures for the third quarter need to be set against the reports of several business surveys which depict growth as largely stagnating with household spending depressed and business confidence weak.