Picture of automobile manufacturing plant

Driving innovations in manufacturing: Open Access research from DMEM

Strathprints makes available Open Access scholarly outputs by Strathclyde's Department of Design, Manufacture & Engineering Management (DMEM).

Centred on the vision of 'Delivering Total Engineering', DMEM is a centre for excellence in the processes, systems and technologies needed to support and enable engineering from concept to remanufacture. From user-centred design to sustainable design, from manufacturing operations to remanufacturing, from advanced materials research to systems engineering.

Explore Open Access research by DMEM...

Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2012]

Allan, Grant (2012) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2012]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 36 (2). pp. 20-29. ISSN 2046-5378

[img] PDF (FEC_36_2_2012_AllanG)
FEC_36_2_2012_AllanG.pdf - Final Published Version

Download (627kB)


The Scottish economy has contracted in the first two quarters of 2012, marking three consecutive quarters of negative growth. While quarter three for the UK has seen an uplift of 1 per cent, this is not likely to be replicated in Scotland. It is therefore possible that the Scottish economy could contract in 2012 overall, and we now forecast a contraction of -0.1% over 2012 (down from 0.4% growth forecast in June 2012). Worsening forward-looking indicators on business confidence and export orders, in particular with trouble returning to major (core and periphery) economies of the Eurozone, continue to suggest that the return to pre-recession levels of economic activity is likely to be slow. Weak domestic demand from consumers and on-going fiscal consolidation are not sufficient to offset uncertainty around what was anticipated to be a recovery led by exports and investment. The silver lining appears to be that indexes suggest that a return to overall recession (a "triple-dip") appears to be unlikely. In our central forecast we have revised down growth in 2013 and 2014 to 1.3% and 2.2% respectively.