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Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2012]

Allan, Grant (2012) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2012]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 36 (2). pp. 20-29. ISSN 2046-5378

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Abstract

The Scottish economy has contracted in the first two quarters of 2012, marking three consecutive quarters of negative growth. While quarter three for the UK has seen an uplift of 1 per cent, this is not likely to be replicated in Scotland. It is therefore possible that the Scottish economy could contract in 2012 overall, and we now forecast a contraction of -0.1% over 2012 (down from 0.4% growth forecast in June 2012). Worsening forward-looking indicators on business confidence and export orders, in particular with trouble returning to major (core and periphery) economies of the Eurozone, continue to suggest that the return to pre-recession levels of economic activity is likely to be slow. Weak domestic demand from consumers and on-going fiscal consolidation are not sufficient to offset uncertainty around what was anticipated to be a recovery led by exports and investment. The silver lining appears to be that indexes suggest that a return to overall recession (a "triple-dip") appears to be unlikely. In our central forecast we have revised down growth in 2013 and 2014 to 1.3% and 2.2% respectively.