Outlook and appraisal [June 2013]

Ashcroft, Brian (2013) Outlook and appraisal [June 2013]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 37 (1). pp. 3-23. ISSN 2046-5378

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Clearer signs of a recovery are now emerging within the Scottish economy. This is to be welcomed. But despite the recent good survey evidence the recovery is far weaker than would be expected 5 years after a recession, even a recession generated by a banking crisis. The reason for this stagnation and anaemic recovery is twofold: the UK government's fiscal consolidation programme and a weak export performance reflecting both supply-side structural problems in the UK and Scottish economies as well as weak global demand. [This section appraises the current state of Scottish economic performance and explores the economic outlook.]