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Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2010]

Allan, Grant (2010) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2010]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 34 (2). pp. 22-36. ISSN 2046-5378

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As developed economies across the world adjust and recover from the global financial crises and the recession of 2008-9, recent data suggests that after four quarters of negative growth, Scotland has (in Q2) seen a quarter of growth largely outwith most expectations. This has come on the back of three quarters of anaemic growth performance (0.0%, 0.1% and -0.2%) while the unemployment rate and level has continued to increase. While this apparent dichotomy is analysed in more detail in an earlier section, the response of the labour market to changes in the level of activity will be important for our forecasts of both.