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Forecasts of the Scottish economy [March 2011]

Allan, Grant (2011) Forecasts of the Scottish economy [March 2011]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, 34 (3). pp. 21-40. ISSN 2046-5378

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Abstract

Since our last forecast the recent slight improvement in labour market figures means that we have revised down (up) our estimates of unemployment (and employment) at the end of 2010. Growth in 2011, 2012 and 2013 continues to be uncertain as the global economic situation remains weak, with Scottish exports, for example, typically disconnected from the major growth economies, public sector fiscal consolidation most significant in 2011, and welfare spending reductions directly hitting household finances towards the end of our forecast period.