Confounding the commentators : how the 2010 exit poll got it (more or less) right
Curtice, John and Fisher, S and Kuhai, J; Fisher, Justin and Wlezien, Christopher, eds. (2011) Confounding the commentators : how the 2010 exit poll got it (more or less) right. In: The UK General Election of 2010. Routledge, London. ISBN 9781315868059
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An exit poll conducted on behalf of the three main UK broadcasting organizations for the 2010 general election predicted that the Liberal Democrats would win fewer seats than in 2005, a suggestion that was met with widespread disbelief amongst commentators. Not only did this forecast prove correct, but the poll’s prediction that the Conservatives would be the largest party in a hung parliament with 307 seats also proved to be spot on. This paper describes and evaluates the methodology of the poll. The key features were a focus on changes in party vote shares facilitated by conducting the poll in the same places as at the previous election, modelling of the variation in those estimated changes, and a probabilistic approach to identifying the likely outcome in seats. All three features contributed to the accuracy of the 2010 poll. The data provided a highly accurate estimate of the change in the Liberal Democrat vote. Meanwhile, a slight overestimation of the swing from Labour to the Conservatives was corrected by the modelling of changes in vote shares and the use of a probabilistic approach to seat prediction.
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Item type: Book Section ID code: 36199 Dates: DateEvent22 September 2011PublishedSubjects: UNSPECIFIED Department: Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences (HaSS) > Government and Public Policy > Politics Depositing user: Pure Administrator Date deposited: 01 Dec 2011 09:49 Last modified: 04 Jun 2024 03:11 Related URLs: URI: https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/36199