Picture of sea vessel plough through rough maritime conditions

Innovations in marine technology, pioneered through Open Access research...

Strathprints makes available scholarly Open Access content by researchers in the Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Marine Engineering based within the Faculty of Engineering.

Research here explores the potential of marine renewables, such as offshore wind, current and wave energy devices to promote the delivery of diverse energy sources. Expertise in offshore hydrodynamics in offshore structures also informs innovations within the oil and gas industries. But as a world-leading centre of marine technology, the Department is recognised as the leading authority in all areas related to maritime safety, such as resilience engineering, collision avoidance and risk-based ship design. Techniques to support sustainability vessel life cycle management is a key research focus.

Explore the Open Access research of the Department of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Marine Engineering. Or explore all of Strathclyde's Open Access research...

Why the damped trend works

Gardner Jr, E.S. and McKenzie, E. (2011) Why the damped trend works. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 62. pp. 1177-1180. ISSN 0160-5682

Full text not available in this repository. Request a copy from the Strathclyde author

Abstract

The damped trend method of exponential smoothing is a benchmark that has been difficult to beat in empirical studies of forecast accuracy. One explanation for this success is the flexibility of the method, which contains a variety of special cases that are automatically selected during the fitting process. That is, when the method is fitted, the optimal parameters usually define a special case rather than the method itself. For example, in the M3-competition time series, the parameters defined the damped trend method only about 43% of the time using local initial values for the method components. In the remaining series, a special case was selected, ranging from a random walk to a deterministic trend. The most common special case was a new method, simple exponential smoothing with a damped drift term.