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Building prior distributions to support Bayesian reliability growth modelling using expert judgement

Walls, Lesley and Quigley, John (2001) Building prior distributions to support Bayesian reliability growth modelling using expert judgement. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 74 (2). pp. 117-128. ISSN 0951-8320

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Abstract

A sound methodology for the elicitation of subjective expert judgement is a pre-requisite for specifying prior distributions for the parameters of reliability growth models. In this paper, we describe an elicitation process that is developed to ensure valid data are collected by suggesting how possible bias might be identified and managed. As well as discussing the theory underpinning the elicitation process, the paper gives practical guidance concerning its implementation during reliability growth testing. The collection of subjective data using the proposed elicitation process is embedded within a Bayesian reliability growth modelling framework and reflections upon its practical use are described.