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Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

Revie, Matthew John Thomas and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2010) Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 224 (4). pp. 322-332.

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    Abstract

    The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice.

    Item type: Article
    ID code: 27762
    Keywords: elicitation methods , bayes linear models, Risk Management
    Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Risk Management
    Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
    Related URLs:
      Depositing user: Mrs Caroline Sisi
      Date Deposited: 06 Jun 2011 16:09
      Last modified: 17 Jul 2013 10:01
      URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/27762

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