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Development of a combined operational and strategic decision support model for offshore wind

Dinwoodie, Iain Allan and McMillan, David and Revie, Matthew and Lazakis, Iraklis and Dalgic, Yalcin (2013) Development of a combined operational and strategic decision support model for offshore wind. Energy Procedia, 35. pp. 157-166. ISSN 1876-6102

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Abstract

This paper presents the development of a combined operational and strategic decision support model for offshore wind operations. The purpose of the model is to allow developers and operators to explore various expected operating scenarios over the project lifetime in order to determine optimal operating strategies and associated risks. The required operational knowledge for the model is specified and the chosen methodology is described. The operational model has been established in the MATLAB environment in order to simulate operating costs and lost revenue, based on wind farm specification, operational climate and operating strategy. The outputs from this model are then used as the input to decision support analysis by establishing Bayesian Belief Networks and decision trees at various stages throughout the project life time. An illustrative case study, which demonstrates the capability and benefits of the modeling approach, is presented through the examination of different failure rates and alternative electricity price scenarios.