Strathprints Home | Open Access | Browse | Search | User area | Copyright | Help | Library Home | SUPrimo

The probability of extinction in a bovine respiratory syncytial virus epidemic model

Griffiths, Martin and Greenhalgh, David (2011) The probability of extinction in a bovine respiratory syncytial virus epidemic model. Mathematical Biosciences, 231 (2). pp. 144-158.

Full text not available in this repository. (Request a copy from the Strathclyde author)

Abstract

Backward bifurcation is a relatively recent yet well-studied phenomenon associated with deterministic epidemic models. It allows for the presence of multiple subcritical endemic equilibria, and is generally found only in models possessing a reasonable degree of complexity. One particular aspect of backward bifurcation that appears to have been virtually overlooked in the literature is the potential influence its presence might have on the behaviour of any analogous stochastic model. Indeed, the primary aim of this paper is to investigate this possibility. Our approach is to compare the theoretical probabilities of extinction, calculated via a particular stochastic formulation of a deterministic model exhibiting backward bifurcation, with those obtained from a series of stochastic simulations. We have found some interesting links in the behaviour between the deterministic and stochastic models, and are able to offer plausible explanations for our observations.

Item type: Article
ID code: 31217
Notes: Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: backward bifurcation, branching process, stochastic simulation, probabilities of extinction, stochastic model, deterministic model , Probabilities. Mathematical statistics, Animal culture, Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all), Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all), Modelling and Simulation, Applied Mathematics, Statistics and Probability, Immunology and Microbiology(all), Medicine(all)
Subjects: Science > Mathematics > Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Agriculture > Animal culture
Department: Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics > Statistics and Modelling Science
Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
Related URLs:
Depositing user: Pure Administrator
Date Deposited: 21 May 2011 15:50
Last modified: 27 Mar 2014 09:21
URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/31217

Actions (login required)

View Item