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Open Access research that challenges the mind...

The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including those from the School of Psychological Sciences & Health - but also papers by researchers based within the Faculties of Science, Engineering, Humanities & Social Sciences, and from the Strathclyde Business School.

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The probability of extinction in a bovine respiratory syncytial virus epidemic model

Griffiths, Martin and Greenhalgh, David (2011) The probability of extinction in a bovine respiratory syncytial virus epidemic model. Mathematical Biosciences, 231 (2). pp. 144-158.

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Abstract

Backward bifurcation is a relatively recent yet well-studied phenomenon associated with deterministic epidemic models. It allows for the presence of multiple subcritical endemic equilibria, and is generally found only in models possessing a reasonable degree of complexity. One particular aspect of backward bifurcation that appears to have been virtually overlooked in the literature is the potential influence its presence might have on the behaviour of any analogous stochastic model. Indeed, the primary aim of this paper is to investigate this possibility. Our approach is to compare the theoretical probabilities of extinction, calculated via a particular stochastic formulation of a deterministic model exhibiting backward bifurcation, with those obtained from a series of stochastic simulations. We have found some interesting links in the behaviour between the deterministic and stochastic models, and are able to offer plausible explanations for our observations.