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A computer simulation of the transmission dynamics and the effects of duration of immunity and survival of persistently infected animals on the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in dairy cattle

Innocent, G. and Morrison, I. and Brownlie, J. and Gettinby, G. (1997) A computer simulation of the transmission dynamics and the effects of duration of immunity and survival of persistently infected animals on the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in dairy cattle. Infection and Epidemiology, 119 (1). pp. 91-100. ISSN 0950-2688

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Abstract

This paper describes a computer model that mimics the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection through a closed herd. The model is able to simulate the spread of infection when a persistently infected (PI) animal is introduced into an infection-free herd, and it is used to investigate the role of persistently infected animals, seroconverting animals, loss of PI calves and duration of immunity on the level of infection within the herd. Under typical management conditions one persistently infected animal poses a real threat to a herd, and the prospect of the herd becoming infection free in a 10-year period without intervention is remote. Seroconverting animals are found to be an important source of infection in herds with few immune animals. The increased loss of PI calves is likely to restrict the numbers of PI animals in a herd, and loss of immunity is important since it increases the possibility of a PI calf being born.

Item type: Article
ID code: 17592
Keywords: computer simulation, transmission dynamics, bovine viral diarrhoea virus, dairy cattle, Animal culture, Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Subjects: Agriculture > Animal culture
Science > Mathematics > Probabilities. Mathematical statistics
Department: Faculty of Science > Mathematics and Statistics
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 14 May 2010 14:33
    Last modified: 12 Mar 2012 11:08
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/17592

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