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Prior Distribution Elicitation

Quigley, J.L. and Bedford, T.J. and Walls, L.A. (2008) Prior Distribution Elicitation. In: Encyclopaedia of Statistics in Quality and Reliability. Wiley. ISBN 9780470018613

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An overview of key issues associated with the elicitation of a prior probability distribution is provided. The nature of subjective probability is discussed, and the main causes of biased assessments are identified. Evidence is presented suggesting that people can improve their probability assessments under the correct conditions. The ways in which the elicitation of a prior distribution can be embedded within a process to minimize the impact of bias are examined. More advanced issues, namely validation of a prior distribution and reducing the cognitive burden on experts, are described.

Item type: Book Section
ID code: 15458
Keywords: elicitation, prior distributions, bayesian, subjective probability, Management. Industrial Management
Subjects: Social Sciences > Industries. Land use. Labor > Management. Industrial Management
Department: Strathclyde Business School > Management Science
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    Depositing user: Mrs Caroline Sisi
    Date Deposited: 11 Feb 2010 12:16
    Last modified: 12 Mar 2012 11:02

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