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The Strathprints institutional repository is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde's Open Access research outputs. Strathprints provides access to thousands of Open Access research papers by University of Strathclyde researchers, including by researchers from the Department of Computer & Information Sciences involved in mathematically structured programming, similarity and metric search, computer security, software systems, combinatronics and digital health.

The Department also includes the iSchool Research Group, which performs leading research into socio-technical phenomena and topics such as information retrieval and information seeking behaviour.

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Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development

Elders, I.M. and Ault, G.W. and Galloway, S.J. and McDonald, J.R. (2005) Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development. In: 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems, 2005-11-18.

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Abstract

This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The process begins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorterterm scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial longterm scenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially.