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Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development

Elders, I.M. and Ault, G.W. and Galloway, S.J. and McDonald, J.R. (2005) Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development. In: 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems, 2005-11-18, Amsterdam.

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Abstract

This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The process begins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorterterm scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial longterm scenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially.

Item type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
ID code: 11715
Notes: Requires Template change to Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution
Keywords: character generation, economic forecasting, uncertainty, power system economics , power generation economics, power generation , fuel economy, fossil fuels, environmental economics, electricity supply industry, Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Subjects: Technology > Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Department: Faculty of Engineering > Electronic and Electrical Engineering
Professional Services > Corporate Services Directorate
Related URLs:
    Depositing user: Strathprints Administrator
    Date Deposited: 29 Jul 2011 12:41
    Last modified: 17 Jul 2013 15:20
    URI: http://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/id/eprint/11715

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