Improving cost competitiveness in hydrogen production pathways through technology maturity, patent concentration and game-theoretic classification

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Alaez, Juan and Mendibil, Kepa and Wong, T.C. (2026) Improving cost competitiveness in hydrogen production pathways through technology maturity, patent concentration and game-theoretic classification. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 271. 156461. ISSN 0360-3199 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2026.156461)

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Abstract

Many hydrogen projects face cancellation due to high development costs and contractual asymmetries between technology licensors and project developers, highlighting the need for strategic frameworks to enhance efficient collaborations. This study employs a multi-method approach based on a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and analytical classification. The approach extends the Kraljic matrix to innovation-intensive technologies. Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and market growth are used as proxies for profit impact, while the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) measures supply risk through patent concentration. Hydrogen production pathways are then classified and linked to cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic models to evaluate optimal collaboration strategies between licensors and project developers. Our analysis shows that non-cooperative models dominate when technologies exhibit low-to-medium technology maturity and smaller market growth, such as Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell (SOEC), Anion-Exchange Membrane electrolysis (AEM), or Turquoise technology process. A mix of cooperative and non-cooperative games is included in Strategic contexts, such as Proton-Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolysis, Alkaline Water Electrolysis (AWE) green hydrogen, grey and blue hydrogen technology process, where patent complementarities and balanced bargaining power foster joint innovation. The proposed classification offers a structured pathway to bridge procurement strategy, market structure and innovation governance in the hydrogen sector, and it helps project developers to identify which technologies carry higher HHI, which game-theoretic strategy should be applied to achieve more effective cooperative outcomes. The results directly support hydrogen developers in selecting technologies and reducing sourcing risk.

ORCID iDs

Alaez, Juan, Mendibil, Kepa ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1701-1796 and Wong, T.C. ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8942-1984;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)