Apportioning UK public debt after Scottish independence

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Comerford, David (2026) Apportioning UK public debt after Scottish independence. Scottish Affairs. ISSN 0966-0356 (In Press)

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Abstract

This article examines how United Kingdom public debt might be apportioned after Scottish independence, with particular attention to the implications of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) programmes. It argues that debt apportionment cannot be understood solely in terms of the gross stock of outstanding gilts, because QE altered both the composition and institutional location of part of the public debt by replacing long-maturity government bonds with remunerated central-bank reserves. While the paper does not attempt to resolve the wider macroeconomic debate over Scottish independence, it situates debt division within that broader context by recognising the importance of currency choice, fiscal credibility, external balance and bargaining power. It then develops a benchmark framework for an orderly negotiated settlement in which rUK remains the continuing state and Scotland introduces a new currency. Under this benchmark, Scotland could assume a population share of UK public obligations without beginning independence with an implausibly large stock of market debt, though the outcome remains conditional on the credibility of the wider post-independence monetary and fiscal framework.

ORCID iDs

Comerford, David ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5541-736X;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)