From Custody to Community : Post-Release Supervision and Re-Offending

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Gehrsitz, Markus and Grant, Sam and McIntyre, Stuart (2026) From Custody to Community : Post-Release Supervision and Re-Offending. Discussion paper. University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

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Abstract

Many criminal offenders are managed in the community. We combine a natural experiment with administrative data from England and Wales to assess a key community correctional policy: post-release supervision. We find that supervision reduces re-offending in the first four weeks after prison release by 15%, in part due to the incapacitation of prolific offenders who are recalled to prison for violations of their probation terms. Supervision also causes a 5.5% reduction in re-offending three years after release. This effect persistence, which is even stronger for first-time prisoners, suggests that post-release supervision is a cost-efficient way to induces genuine behavioural change.

ORCID iDs

Gehrsitz, Markus ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0826-0582, Grant, Sam and McIntyre, Stuart ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0640-7544;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)