Rapid fault leakage modeling for CO2 storage in saline aquifers

Tools

Ramachandran, Hariharan and de Jonge-Anderson, Iain and Hafizi Musa, Ikhwanul and Nicholson, Uisdean and Tan, Chee Phuat and Geiger, Sebastian and Doster, Florian (2026) Rapid fault leakage modeling for CO2 storage in saline aquifers. Water Resources Research, 62 (4). e2025WR041074. ISSN 0043-1397 (https://doi.org/10.1029/2025WR041074)

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Abstract

Simulating the fluid flow along fault zones at different scales is essential for predicting the CO2 leakage and containment during injection and storage. However, this can be challenging, especially in the early stages of a storage project when knowledge of the reservoir and caprock is limited and the cost of obtaining the relevant data is high. This study develops a tool for fast screening of fault leakage at the site screening stage. The tool uses a vertically integrated reservoir model coupled with a newly developed upscaled fault leakage function based on source/sink relations. The fault is conceptualized as an increased vertical permeability through the caprock due to the presence of a fracture network in the damage zone and a reduced horizontal permeability in the reservoir due to fault throw and presence of a low-permeability fault core. The proposed tool is validated against numerical simulations demonstrating strong agreement in predicting leakage rates under varying reservoir conditions. The model's capabilities are further tested through simulation cases, including a field-scale application in the Malay Basin. These cases revealed key insights into the roles of fault permeability and fault capillary entry pressure in controlling leakage and highlighted the importance of accurately characterizing these properties to mitigate risks. The computationally efficient model presented in this study is a valuable tool for quantifying uncertainties in key fault parameters, and other constitutive relations that affect the behavior of the storage reservoir and potential fault leakage.

ORCID iDs

Ramachandran, Hariharan, de Jonge-Anderson, Iain ORCID logoORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9438-8194, Hafizi Musa, Ikhwanul, Nicholson, Uisdean, Tan, Chee Phuat, Geiger, Sebastian and Doster, Florian;
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)